Weah, Jones Top Boakai in 2017 Presidential Election Poll

Although the 2017 Presidential and Legislative Elections may appeared to be distance away, it seems that several high profile and influential individuals both in the corridor of state power and the private sector are said to make their intention known for the nation's highest office, the presidency. All of these political heavyweights want to succeed President Ellen Johnson Sirlearf who second and final term constitutionally comes to an end on 16 January 2018. The question that flips the lips of many Liberians, many of whom are of voting age is who Liberia’s next president becomes after 2017.

Will the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) political leader, Senator George Weah set to repeat history if he contests the 2017 Presidency election and should he be expected to establish his previous political record as noted by history to settle for second place and sit aside and cry foul? He lost the 2005 presidential election to Sirleaf and was unsuccessful again in 2011 when he contested as presidential and vice-presidential candidate, while he has won the December 20 Senatorial poll for Montserrado County with over 75 percent, has he now learned and tasted the beauty of victory and how organized is he to advance it to the highest political seat in the country? It’s just the matter of time, and either smile or tear will tell the story.

He is expected to stand again in 2017, but will he repeat history either as a winner or loser to any of the several political heavy-weights such as CBL’s Mill Jones, Vice President Joseph Boakai, Cllr. Charles Brumskine, Senator Prince Y. Johnson or Former Maritime Commissioner, Urey?

In order to get the masses views, NEW 24 last week conducted a random survey through a mobile phone calls in 13 of the 15 counties, covering 3,000 likely voters. The mobile phones used in the process include Lone Star, CELLCOM and Novafone, respectively. In the random survey mobile phone calls to 5,000 persons of voting age on the question which of serious contender stand a better chance of winning the 2017 presidential election?

The survey was conducted as part of NEW 24 Newspaper tracking of political activities for the year 2015 in the wake of criticism of the Unity Party led government implementation of its programs especially effort towards job creation, youth and women participation in the governance process, reconstruction and development, restoration of basic social services, security and stability and fight against corruption.

The polls which contained a negligible error put CDC's Political Leader, Senator George Weah ahead followed by CBL Governor Dr. Jones, and closely followed by Liberty party's Charles Brusmskine and Unity Party's Joseph Boakai. According to the poll, Senator Prince Y. Johnson of Nimba County is likely to be the deciding factor if the process was to go to the second round but other new variables might change the dynamics of the process.

A breakdown of statistical reports show that CDC's Weah is again poised to sweep Montserrado and the Southeastern region counties of Grand Gedeh, River Gee, Grand Kru, Maryland, Bomi and likely to pick up commanding votes in the northern Region if Ngafuan is place on the CDC’s ticket.

While the incumbent Vice President, UP's Boakai is undoubtedly set to clinch victory in the Northern Region which including Lofa and Gbarpolu; he is likely to suffer defeat in Bong, Grand Bassa, Margibi and Cape Mount, respectively.

According to the poll, Boakai is poised to receive a massive defeat in Montserrado if he does not reorganize himself well on the political landscape now. For Veep Boakai, it likely the Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf's factor will boost his chances in the process or harm his chances in the process, he will face a serious resistance. He is far behind in Montserrado, Nimba, Bong, Grand Gedeh, Sinoe, Maryland Grand Kru and Grand Bassa, respectively.

Accordingly, if the survey remained unchanged, CBL's Jones will be neck-to-neck to CDC's George Weah in Montserrado, while the Governor will match any candidates in the Central, Southeastern and Northern Regions of Liberia. His political favoritism is developing in Nimba, Lofa and Grand Cape Mount, excluding Montserrado and Sinoe. However, it is not known if Dr. Jones will maintain his political favoritism especially among marketers and youthful population.

He is likely to pull a surprise in Margibi and Bong Counties. Our poll shows that Nimba will be split between Weah ticket and Governor Jones ticket, but if Senator Johnson stand in the poll, he will receive greater number of the votes in the county.

Liberty Party's Brumskine, our poll shows will definitely sweep Grand Bassa and River Cess Counties but is far behind in Montserrado, especially the Southeastern, Central and Northern Regions of Liberia. If elections were to be held today, Cllr. Brumskine according to the poll will again not be counted among the first two-party for a run-off; therefore he needs to re-change his political methods and tactics, as his LP received the less votes in these three regions.

So far, business tycoon, Mr. Urey is far overdue by the other political players in the race for the Executive Mansion as he received the fewer votes for the 5,000 likely voters surveyed in the 13 counties through mobile phone calls. There is a possibility that the Charles Taylor's factor will harm him than helping him, the poll has shown.

The latest poll covered 5000 likely voters of which 2,940 persons are registered as men and 2,060 obtained for women. CDC's George Weah, Vice president Boakai, and Governor Jones, each hold equally strong advantages of 38%, 10% and 17%, respectively with seven percentage point lead between the first three contenders for the presidential. However, the percentage is likely to change from now to 2017 based on the contenders own interaction with the voting population.

CDC's Weah holds among youth, 58% over the rest of the contenders, followed closely by CBL Jones and Brumskine, while CBL’s Jones and UP’s Boakai lead among the older folks, followed by Brumskine and Prince Johnson. Among women; Dr. Jones and Weah hold a percentage lead over Boakai and LP Brumskine. About 56% of those in governmental circle favored Boakai and Jones while those unemployed tipped Weah and Jones.

Out of the total 5000 likely voters, 2,150 choose Ambassador Weah over the rest of the others would be contenders, 1990 likely voters pick Dr. Jones, 550 went for men and 1410 for women, while 885 likely voters of which 655 registered as men and 230 women favored Boakai.

The survey which contained a margin of errors, registered 215 as likely voters for Cllr. Brumskine, of which 195 men and 20 for women. Mr. Urey received 135 votes among the 5,000 likely voters. The age group between 18 and 35 favors Weah and CBL’s Jones while those between 65 and 70 and above support Boakai.

Each of the five top contenders has the strong support of their own county of origin while likely votes appeared to lose interest in political parties, with 33% of the total number of persons the survey covered registering as partisans while 57% of the likely voters stand for independents and 20% undecided likely voters. According to the opinion poll, 85% likely voters registered their interests for other would be contenders, while 15% other likely voters’ say they are undecided to vote for any of the five serious contenders.

About 89% of the likely voters say officials of government trusted and placed in public offices are performing below expectation. The issues of unemployment, poverty, corruption and the rise in tuition and fees for schools were the major issues the likely voters stressed during the poll.

About 95% of the likely voters believe that none of the five contenders have the political will to eradicate corruption, while 50% says either Baoakai or Weah has the political will to fight corruption and prosecute alleged corrupt officials. On the economy and poverty reduction, Dr. Jones leads the rest while Weah is the most admired contender among the likely voters with 85 %.

About 85% of the likely voters speak positive of incumbent vice President Ambassador Boakak but overall rated him of being weak, and lack the political will to step in the footprint of president Johnson-Sirleaf. They added that the Vice President Baokai is not visible.

They say Ambassador Boakai and Weah are too soft to stand up to the huge demands by the population. The likely voters expressed fears that if ambassador Weah decided to go to the poll on the same ticket with Ngafuan as his running mate, the poll will be decided in the first round but said the electoral process would be tough if Boakai-Brumskine Ticket vs Weah-Ngafuan or Baokai--Brumskine ticket vs Weah-Ngafuan ticket.

Meanwhile, 67% of the likely voters think Senator Prince Johnson lack the expertise to attract donors' support to move the country in the right direction. They however said in the case were the country sovereignty is threatened; he is the best of the rest to stand to the task and has the political will to fight corruption.

They however expressed fears that if Senator Johnson is elected as president, he will take the law into his own hands, describing him as dictatorial and undiplomatic as well controversial.

However, the statistics obtained from our poll are not static, considering two years to the general elections in the country, massive changes are likely to occur as the political playing field keep on deepening.

Several others said if elections were to take place this year they are not totally certain they would vote for an of the contenders but added that they could change their minds; this suggests that turnout of partisans could be particularly important in deciding the election result, with Weah poised to benefit slightly more if they do, as compared with the other contenders. But if more independents or undecided voters are energized and show up in massive, the contender who is to receive their votes is likely to win in 2017.

Liberia’s efforts to recover from a long civil war that ended in 2003 and reestablish democracy have been hampered this year by an Ebola epidemic that has killed more than 4,000 people in the country and more than 8,000 people in west Africa.

The Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) political leader, Senator George Weah is poised to repeat history if he contest the 2017 Presidency election. The history of either wins or loses which is part of his political record.

He lost the 2005 presidential election to Sirleaf and was unsuccessful again in 2011 when he contested as presidential and vice-presidential candidate, while he has won the December 20th Senatorial poll for Montserrado County with over 75 percent.

He is expected to stand again in 2017, but will he repeat history either as a winner or loser to any of the several political heavy-weights such as CBL’s Mill Jones, Vice President Joseph Boakai, Cllr. Charles Brumskine, Senator Prince Y. Johnson or Former Maritime Commissioner, Urey?

Political institutions especially parties in the country are built around individuals, such is the case of the governing Unity Party which is rallying on the popularity and influence of President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf.

The same goes to CDC, Liberty Party, NPP, NDPL and several others. Whenever these individuals whose influences and financial power provided these parties to operate are no more around, such parties are doomed and soon get struck in the cold. This is evident because this has been the case with several political parties.

For instance, two former ruling parties-NDPL and NPP were exclusively centered on the financial supports and influences of ex-presidents Samuel K. Doe and Charles Taylor. This situation is not only limited to political parties but also extended to organizations and institutions in the country.

Many persons have expressed fears that the departure of President Sirleaf from the political scene will ultimately be the end of the ruling Unity Party, at the end of her state power thereby passing the torch of leadership to another party or individual.

Until political parties and institutions in the country can be prepared to smoothly operate outside the sways and pockets of individuals, Liberia’s political system is doomed to suffer a downward trail.

Let’s be frank here, besides the two business-financial oriented two new comers-Jones and Urey, the rest have been down the path of being branded presidential flunkies; for some twice and other once and now there they are once again reflected on the banner of parading the ‘political popes’ on stage 2017.