Heavy-Weights Gear up for 2017 Presidential Election
- onlinenewvision0
- Jun 2, 2015
- 8 min read

Although the 2017 Presidential and Legislative Elections may appeared to be distance away, it seems that several high profile and influential individuals both in the corridor of state power and the private sector are said to make their intention known for the nation's highest office, the presidency. All of these financially potent individuals want to succeed President Ellen Johnson Sirlearf who second and final term constitutionally comes to an end on 16 January 2018. The question that flips the lips of many Liberians, many of whom are of voting age is who will be the next president of Liberia come 2017 elections?
In order to get the masses views following the declaration of Veep Joseph Boakai to contest the 2017 Presidential Election, the NEW VISION over the weekend conducted a random survey through a mobile phone calls in 13 of the 15 counties, covering 3,000 likely voters. The mobile phones used in the process include Lone Star, CELLCOM and Novafone, respectively.
In the random survey mobile phone calls to 5,000 persons of voting age on the question which of serious contender stand a better chance of winning the 2017 presidential election?
The survey was conducted as part of NEW VISION Newspaper tracking of political activities for the year 2015 in the wake of criticism of the Unity Party led government implementation of its programs especially effort towards job creation, youth and women participation in the governance process, reconstruction and development, restoration of basic social services, security and stability and fight against corruption.
The polls which contained a negligible error put CDC's Political Leader, Senator George Weah, and CBL Governor Dr. Jones, neck to neck, followed closely by Unity Party's Joseph Boakai and Liberty Party's Charles Brusmskine. According to the poll, Senator Prince Y. Johnson of Nimba County is likely to be the deciding factor if the poll goes to second round.
A breakdown of statistical reports show that CDC's Weah is again poised to win Montserrado and Margibi, and the Southeastern region counties of Grand Gedeh, River Gee, Grand Kru, Maryland and likely to pick up commanding votes in the northern region of Lofa and Bomi. While the incumbent Vice President, UP's Boakai is undoubtedly set to clinch victory in the Northern Region which including Lofa, Gbarpolu, Cape Mount and Bomi; he is likely to receive commanding votes in Bong, Grand Bassa and Margibi, respectively.
According to the poll, Boakai is poised to receive a massive defeat in Montserrado, Nimba, Margibi and the Southeastern Region counties of Grand Gedeh, Maryland, Grand Kru and Sinoe if he does not reorganize himself well on the political landscape and present himself as a would-be-president by going far left.
For Veep Boakai, the Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf's factor is likely to boost his chances in the Northern Region but for the Central and Southeastern regions as well as Montserrado, he will face a serious political doom except he work overtime to change the dynamic and the perception of the voters who described him as the weak link among the other candidates.
He is far behind in Montserrado, Nimba, Bong, Grand Gedeh, Sinoe, Maryland, Grand Kru and Grand Bassa, respectively.
Accordingly, if the survey remained unchanged, CBL's Jones will be neck-to-neck to CDC's George Weah in Montserrado, while Senator Prince Johnson is poised to come second in Montserrado. The survey shows that Governor Jones will match any candidates in the Central and Southeastern Regions of Liberia while is likability is gowning among marketers, students groups and the youthful populations.
His political favoritism has developed in Nimba, Grand Gedeh, Grand Kru, Maryland and Grand Cape Mount, including Montserrado and Sinoe. He is likely to pull a surprise votes in Margibi, Bomi, Lofa, Grand Bassa, and Bong Counties. Our poll shows that Nimba will definitely fall to Governor Jones, if Senator Johnson gives way to contest for the presidency in 2017.
Liberty Party's Brumskine, our poll shows will definitely sweep Grand Bassa and River Cess Counties but is far behind in Montserrado especially the Southeastern, Central and Northern Regions of Liberia. If elections were to be held today, Cllr. Brumskine according to the poll will again not be counted among the first two-party for a run-off; therefore he needs to re-change his political methods and tactics, as his LP received the less votes in these three regions, our random survey through a mobile phone calls has shown.
So far, business tycoon, Mr. Urey is far overdue by the other political players in the race for the Executive Mansion as he received the fewer votes for the 5,000 likely voters surveyed in the 13 counties through mobile phone calls. There is a possibility that the Charles Taylor's factor will harm him than helping him, the poll has shown.
The latest poll covered 5000 likely voters of which 2,940 persons are registered as men and 2,060 obtained for women. CDC's George Weah, Vice president Boakai, and Governor Jones, each hold equally strong advantages of 24%, 19% and 12%, respectively with seven percentage point lead between the first three contenders for the presidential.
However, the percentage is likely to change from now to 2017 based on the contenders own interaction with the voting population and inter-changeable political dynamics.
CDC's Weah holds among youth, 58% over the rest of the contenders, followed closely by CBL Jones and Brumskine, while CBL’s Jones and UP’s Boakai lead among the older folks, followed by Brumskine and Prince Johnson. Among women; Dr. Jones and Weah hold a percentage lead over Boakai and LP Brumskine. About 56% of those in governmental circle favored Boakai and Jones while those unemployed tipped Weah and Jones. According to the random survey, 95% of those jobless disliked Joseph Boakai’s presidential bid.
Out of the total 5000 likely voters, 2,150 choose Ambassador Weah over the rest of the others would-be-contenders, while 1,990 likely voters pick Dr. Jones, 550 went for men and 1,410 for women, while 885 likely voters of which 655 registered as men and 230 women favored Boakai.
The survey which contained a margin of errors, registered 215 as likely voters for Cllr. Brumskine, of which 195 men and 20 for women. Mr. Urey received 135 votes among the 5,000 likely voters. The age group between 18 and 35 favors Weah and CBL’s Jones while those between 65 and 70 and above support Boakai.
Each of the five top contenders has the strong support of their own county of origin while likely voters appeared to lose interest in political parties, with 33% of the total number of persons the survey covered registering as partisans while 57% of the likely voters stand for independents and 20% undecided likely voters.
According to the opinion poll, 85% likely voters registered their interests for other would be contenders, while 15% other likely voters’ say they are undecided to vote for any of the five serious contenders.
About 89% of the likely voters say officials of government placed in public offices of trust are performing below expectations. The issues of unemployment, poverty, corruption and the rise in tuition and fees for schools were the major issues the likely voters stressed during the poll.
About 95% of the likely voters believe that none of the five contenders have the political will to fight and eradicate corruption, while 50% says either Baoakai, or Weah has the political will to fight corruption and prosecute alleged corrupt officials.
On the economy and poverty reduction, Dr. Jones leads the rest while Weah is the most admired contender among the likely voters, but joined Boakai as the weak link to fight corruption and take decisive action against corrupt officials.
About 85% of the likely voters speak positive of incumbent vice President Ambassador Boakai but overall rated him of being weak for the presidency, and lack the political will to decisively fight corruption, create jobs and bring to book and prosecute corrupt officials in the current regime. They added that the Vice President Baokai politically is not visible.
They say Ambassador Boakai and Weah are too soft to stand up to the huge demands by the population while CDC's Weah according to the poll is the less unprepared contender to lead the nation but stands the better chance of winning the 2017 presidential poll if he makes himself visible on major issues affecting the ordinary people by speaking out, appearing on the various radios talk shows, selling his political agenda.
The likely voters expressed fears that if ambassador Weah decided to go as a running mate to either Jones or Brumskine or Boakai, the poll will be decided in the first round but said the electoral process would be tough if Boakai-Brumskine Ticket vs Weah-Jones or Baokai –Jones ticket vs Weah-Brumskine ticket; Boakai-Prince Jonson ticket Vs Brumskine-Weah ticket.
Meanwhile, 67% of the likely voters think Senator Prince Johnson lack the expertise to attract donors' support to move the country in the right direction. They however said in the case were the country sovereignty is threatened; he is the best of the rest to stand to the task and has the political will to fight corruption.
They however expressed fears that if Senator Johnson is elected as president, he will take the law into his own hands, describing him as dictatorial and undiplomatic as well controversial. However, the statistics obtained from our poll are not static, considering two years to the general elections in the country, massive changes are likely to occur as the political playing field keep on deepening.
Several others said if elections were to take place this year they are not totally certain they would vote for an of the contenders but added that they could change their minds; this suggests that turnout of partisans could be particularly important in deciding the election result, with Weah poised to benefit slightly more if they do, as compared with the other contenders. But if more independents or undecided voters are energized and show up in massive, the contender who is to receive their votes is likely to win in 2017.
Liberia’s efforts to recover from a long civil war that ended in 2003 and reestablish democracy have been hampered this year by an Ebola epidemic that has killed more than 4,000 people in the country and more than 8,000 people in west Africa.
The Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) political leader, Senator George Weah is poised to repeat history if he contest the 2017 Presidency election. The history of either wins or loses which is part of his political record. He lost the 2005 presidential election to Sirleaf and was unsuccessful again in 2011 when he contested as presidential and vice-presidential candidate, while he has won the December 20th Senatorial poll for Montserrado County with over 75 percent.
He is expected to stand again in 2017, but will he repeat history either as a winner or loser to any of the several political heavy-weights such as CBL’s Mill Jones, Vice President Joseph Boakai, Cllr. Charles Brumskine, Senator Prince Y. Johnson or Former Maritime Commissioner, Urey?
Political institutions especially parties in the country are built around individuals, such is the case of the governing Unity Party which is rallying on the popularity and influence of Madam Johnson-Sirleaf. The same goes to CDC, Liberty Party, NPP, NDPL and several others. Whenever these individuals whose influences and financial assistances these parties are operating no more around, such a party is doomed to collapse, this has been the case of several political parties.
For instance, two former ruling parties-NDPL and NPP were exclusively centered on the financial supports and influences of ex-presidents Samuel K. Doe and Charles Taylor. This situation is not only limited to political parties but also extended to organizations and institutions in the country.
Many persons have expressed fears that the departure of President Johnson-Sirleaf from the political scene will ultimately be the end of the ruling Unity Party, at the end state power will be shaping to another party. Until political parties and institutions in the country can be prepared to smoothly operate outside the sways and pockets of individuals, Liberia’s political system is doomed to suffer a downward trail.
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